To help faculty and students enhance understanding of the current landscape and future trends of the China’s economy and to cultivate professional data analysis skills, Faculty of Finance (FOF) of City University of Macau (CityU) hosted a financial seminar at the Ho Yin Convention Centre on the Taipa campus. Professor Qiu Xiaohua, director of CityU’s Institute of Economic Research, delivered a presentation titled “China’s Economy: 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook – Observing and Prospecting China’s Economic Direction from Five Dimensions.” The seminar provided in-depth economic analysis and policy insights for academics and industry professionals. The event was attended by FOF Dean Adrian Cheung Wai Kong and Associate Dean Eva Khong Yueng Wah.
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Professor Qiu Xiaohua began by reviewing China’s economic performance in 2024. He highlighted that despite multiple challenges, including an aging population, deep structural adjustments in the real estate market, high debt levels, and geopolitical tensions, China’s economy still achieved an annual growth rate of 5%, supported by a series of macroeconomic policies. He recapped that the country’s GDP exceeded RMB 134.9 trillion, meeting the projected targets set at the beginning of the year and marking a solid step forward in China’s modernization efforts.
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Prof. Qiu emphasized the central government’s proactive responses, including a series of policy measures introduced since September aimed at stabilizing growth. He regarded these measures, such as stock market support, real estate stabilization, consumer stimulus, and social welfare enhancements, as tools that promptly restored market confidence, mentioning that China’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained in the expanding zone for three consecutive months which signaled a steady economic recovery. Prof Qiu mentioned that by the fourth quarter, the economy had rebounded, recording a year-on-year growth rate of 5.4%. He regarded it as a hard-earned achievement given the complexities of the domestic and global landscape.
Looking ahead to 2025, Prof. Qiu analyzed the potential opportunities and challenges China’s economy might face through five key dimensions:
- First, the economic policies of the new U.S. administration could create significant external shocks for both the global and domestic economies. To mitigate these challenges, China must diversify its export markets while increasing domestic demand support to maintain a balance.
- Second, in response to external shocks, China would expect a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2025. These measures aim to stimulate domestic demand and sustain economic growth. However, the extent, direction, and timing of these policies could have varying impacts on the economy and financial markets.
- Third, the stability and recovery of the China’s real estate sector would remain a crucial factor which would influence investment, consumption, employment, local government finances, and related industries.
- Fourth, the transition from traditional industries to emerging sectors would be another critical factor in forecasting China’s economic trajectory. While traditional industries are now losing development momentum, emerging industries, including advanced manufacturing, new energy, and artificial intelligence, are developing rapidly and are expected to become major drivers of economic growth. However, the necessary adjustments in traditional sectors would still pose short-term economic challenges.
- Fifth, shifts in global geopolitics would continue to have a profound impact on both the global economy and China’s economic trajectory, making it a crucial factor in future economic assessments.
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Lastly, Prof. Qiu emphasized that 2025 would be a year with both certainty and uncertainty. He advised that China should focus on strengthening domestic development by advancing technological innovation under an unpredictable environment, fostering new growth drivers, and implementing effective policy adjustments and structural reforms, and ensuring the quality and resilience of economic development.
The seminar provided valuable insights and in-depth analysis, offering attendees a fresh perspective on China’s economic landscape and future direction. Students actively engaged in discussions and expressed that the session not only gave them a clearer understanding of macroeconomic trends but also inspired new directions for their research. Faculty and students thanked Prof. Qiu for traveling from Beijing to deliver his insightful seminar at CityU.
Moving forward, FOF and the Institute of Economic Research will continue to organize high-quality academic exchange events, contributing to in-depth economic research in Macao and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area while supporting the region’s sustainable economic transformation and long-term development.
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Source: Faculty of Finance
